Have the Forecasts You Have Used Over the Last Few Years Been Much Higher Than What You Actually Experienced?

Here's why.

Local market forecasts based on the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) utilization values consistently overestimate the real values. The NHDS is based on only 370,000 discharges of the approximate 36 million discharges nationwide. It is a poor foundation for local market analyses.

20 of the 510 local markets are located in New York.

Variance at the Local Market Level is Significant

We took the national NHDS values and applied them to the local area demographics - just like our competitors.

We subtracted the actual discharges, drawn from the state data base, from the NHDS based model estimates for that year and calculated the percent difference.

The base utilization values used by some to build their forecasts are often overstated by more than 30% in many markets

    - Is yours one of them?

22 of the 510 local markets are located in Florida.

Statewide, the NHDS local market estimates were off by over 220,000 discharges!