Our Forecasting Methodology Focuses on Local Markets
Our Methodology
For years, forecasters have simply followed the federal data outline and provided forecasts by the national NHDS values or the four multi-state regions.
This approach assumes that Miami has the same use rates as El Paso, Memphis and Baltimore, it doesn't.
Health Forecasts has developed specific models unique to 510 distinct local markets:
Our Local Market Resources Generate More Accurate Forecasts
Better foundation of actual data
More detailed Age/Sex/Race cohorts in every model
Use rates for 40 distinct cohorts in most local models means a higher level of forecast accuracy.
From the charts below, it is clear that the key forecasting drivers vary dramatically by the age, sex, and race cohorts. Therefore, the forecasting model must be run at the most specific cohort level possible in order to incorporate all variability and generate the most accurate results.
Use Rate Variation by Cohort is Highly Significant
This example charts the use rate per 1000 for the 10 cohorts within the White race for one of our 510 markets.
Demographic Growth Rate by Cohort is Highly Variable
This example chart shows the variability for the 10 cohorts within the White race for the same geographical area used in the use rate chart above.
Unmatched technology assessments
Health Forecasts has developed a comprehensive model of the impact on future utilization patterns of:
New Drugs
New Treatment Plans
New Devices
Shifts in Payment Rules
Enhanced Medical Management
Health Forecasts continually collects and updates a comprehensive set of data from the widest range of sources on the anticipated shifts in utilization patterns.
The best forward looking analyses are reviewed from a wide variety of sources including:
